KIRKLAND, WA, October 5, 2009. “There’s a lot to be optimistic about,” according to one director of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service upon reviewing summary statistics for September’s housing activity. The report shows a big jump in pending sales compared to a year ago (up almost 27%), continued drops in inventory (down 17.7% versus a year ago) and brisk demand for homes at the lower end of the price spectrum.
Distressed properties in the system continue to be a drag on prices – median prices for last month’s sales were down about 7.5% from a year ago – and brokers continue to voice frustration with slow response time by lenders. (Banks are taking 9.5 weeks to respond to short-sale requests, versus 4.5 weeks a year ago, according to research by Campbell Communications of Washington, D.C.) Joe Spencer, president and COO of John L. Scott Real Estate, estimates up to 10% of pending sales do not close because they’re caught in the short sale cycle. Still, he comments, “There is a lot to be optimistic about.” He cites interest rates that are now in the high four percents as bordering “on being epic” and the federal tax credit as stimulants to the market.
Northwest MLS brokers reported 7,581 pending sales (offers made and accepted but not yet closed) during September, outgaining the same period a year ago by 1,599 transactions for a 26.7% increase. Last month’s condominium sales surged, with pending sales up nearly 25% from a year ago after languishing in negative year-over-year figures for the first five months of 2009 and only modest gains over the past three months.
During September, members added 10,054 new listings of single family homes and condominiums to inventory, about 7.6% fewer than a year ago. With the combination of fewer new listings and more sales, inventory at month end dipped to its lowest level since March. At month end, the selection included 40,041 properties for sale (33,332 single family homes and 6,709 condominiums). That’s down 17.7% from twelve months ago.
“Our market has certainly come a long way since this time last year,” said Ron Sparks, managing vice president of Coldwell Banker Bain, who said demand is at its highest level in two years. “For all the challenges that remain, it would be difficult to not appreciate the reemerging market vitality that continues to build even as the summer buying season closes,” he added. Activity at open houses is reported to be brisk in many areas, which MLS directors attribute to a combination of factors, including expanded use of a “Public Open House” program. This program allows buyers to search schedules of all open houses in the NWMLS system from the website of any member broker that uses the feature.
Brokers also credit improved affordability, incentives and the looming deadline for the $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers as boosting activity. As the Nov. 30 deadline for the federal $8,000 tax credit program approaches, Spencer advises buyers to “be under contract by the third week of October, to close by Thanksgiving, and to stay away from short sales.” “Because there are so many short sales and bank owned property sales, it was inevitable that prices would fall slightly,” explained NWMLS director Dick Beeson, the broker/owner of Windermere Commencement Associates in Tacoma.
Year-over-year prices are down nearly 7.5 percent across the 19 counties served by NWMLS, but the median sales price of $273,000 for last month’s sales of single family homes and condominiums (combined) equaled the figure for January. Beeson described the price drops as “a necessary adjustment given the number of short sales and bank owned property sales in the mix. (A survey by the National Association of REALTORS indicates distressed homes accounted for 31 percent of transactions in August and July.)
A comparison of year-over-year prices of closed sales by county shows wide variation for September, from a decline of almost 17 percent in Cowlitz County to an increase of nine percent in San Juan County. For the four-county Puget Sound region (King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap counties), prices were down about 7.6 percent from twelve months ago. On a brighter note, Beeson said activity is brisk for lower priced homes in many areas. “Multiple offers are occurring on a regular basis and many buyers have to make two or three offers on different properties just to secure one,” he reports.
Sparks echoed that report, saying, “Describing much of the current market as ‘lively’ is probably a bit of an understatement,” adding, “I’ve heard agents describe open houses as ‘mayhem’ and ‘chaos.” Modestly priced homes in good condition and in popular neighborhoods can certainly draw more than one offer, according to Sparks, who also noted, “This is not to say that all neighborhoods and price points are rebounding at the same pace, but there is an awful lot of economic momentum in our region, including our housing market, that can’t be ignored.”
Emphasizing recovery comes in stages, Beeson acknowledged some “hard adjustments” are being made in higher priced homes where inventories remain high, but expects that segment to recover. He said the main focus of many agents is meeting the needs of the first-time buyers and those who have needs because of lifestyle changes due to advancing age, change in marital status, the birth of children or death of a family member. “These people always need help solving their real estate problems,” he observed.
Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member brokers, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership includes more than 24,000 brokers and agents. The organization, based in Kirkland, currently serves 19 counties in western and central Washington.
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David J Edwards
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The David J Edwards Team
Keller Williams Realty Southeast Sound
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